Tangletown and Green Lake: Hot Housing Market Continues
Kris Murphy and Daniela Dombrowski are Seattle Greenlaker sponsors and real estate brokers who live and specialize in the Wallingford and Green Lake neighborhoods. They practice out of the Keller Williams Greater Seattle office located on the corner of Stone Way and N 45th St.
Tangletown and Green Lake continue to be highly sought after by today’s home buyers. A few years ago, people did not even know where “Tangletown” was. Now, we so often hear “I want to live in Tangletown!” And Green Lake continues to be popular on all sides of the lake.
It is no wonder with our continuing technology boom that people want to live close to the job centers and avoid the I-5 commute at all costs. As we know, our neighborhood is very accessible and convenient and it offers restaurants, shops, parks and other goodies and you don’t even need to leave to cover your daily needs or for entertainment and recreation.
Statistics in the table below are based on home sales in the area outlined on the map above and are derived from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.
|June – Sept 28 2015 to 2016 Home Sales Comparison||2015||2016||Difference||%|
|Number of Closed Sales||84||78||-6||-7.1%|
|Average Days on Market||10.2||11.4||+2.2||+21.5%|
|Median List Price||$649,450||$685,500||+$36,050||+5.5%|
|Median Sales Price||$664,000||$738,750||$74,750||+11.3%|
|List to Sales Price Ratio||102.2%||107.8%||+5.6%%|
|Capture of Active and Pended Listings – Sept 28 2016||#||List Price||Days on Market|
|Pending & Pending Inspection – On September 28, 2016||29||$820,000||10.5|
|Active Capture – On September 28, 2016||24||$649,999||34.4|
We captured all closed sales for June 1 – Sept 28, both for 2015 and 2016. The number of closed sales has decreased by 7.1% from 84 closed sales in 2015 to 78 closed sales in 2016. You may recall in June, we were seeing an uptick in inventory predicting a possible slow down. In our neighborhood the higher inventory was gobbled up in no time by hungry consumers. However, we are seeing a slowdown in home sales in the higher price brackets, over 1 million in outlying neighborhoods.
The median sales price has increased by 11.3% year over year, so we are still experiencing double digit appreciation and the median sales price in the neighborhood for those three months was $738,750.
The average home sold 7.8% over the list price, up 5.6% from last year’s average. This is the result of frenzied bidding wars, nothing new for our neighborhood.
There are currently 24 active single family homes, including townhomes, on the market in Green Lake. In reviewing this list, it is often homes in less desirable locations (arterial locations or close to the freeway), or homes that are overshooting a bit on price and may need to come down that are experiencing longer market times.
What the Trends are Telling Us
The following charts capture Green Lake (area as defined by NWMLS data) real estate trends for 2015 and 2016. This bar graph tells us how many homes were available for sale (light green), how many went under contract (red line), and how many sales closed each month (dark green). The dark green bars and red line tell us that demand is far outpacing supply and is even stronger than last year at this time. The low number of listings in August is fairly typical as we usually see a slow down at the end of summer when the weather is hot and people are on vacation. When September numbers become available, we will see that inventory has been on the rise again after Labor Day, but the demand is back as well and was as strong in August as in May with 34 listings going under contract each month respectively. Only in the month of April were there a few more homes – 38 to be precise – that went pending.
In the chart below, the line at the top represents the relationship between sales and original list price. You can see that most months this year have seen a higher percentage of increases than in 2015. Between 3% and 11% in 20016 versus between -3% a maximum of 4% in 2015. To receive a solid offer 10% over list price is no longer unusual even with just a couple of buyers competing. The days a home stays on the market is still very low and properties are kept on the market for one week or so before taking offers in order for the market to see the listing and gather as many offers as possible as well as give buyers the chance to make their offers as compelling as possible.
Generally, with the diverse housing stock in our neighborhood we don’t think that the price per square foot measurement is a very consistent measure. The reason for this is that condition and finishes vary widely, and often agents list unfinished space as finished so the price per square foot is often not a very reliable metric. However, this chart shows an upward trend in price per square foot for most months in 2016 compared to 2015. We are essentially at $400 per square foot in our neighborhood. Of course, this is an average and quite often smaller homes have a higher price per square foot and larger homes have a lesser price per square foot.
Finally, this chart illustrates months of inventory (or absorption). It is derived based on a calculation dividing the number of active homes for sale by the number of homes that have closed in a given month and attempts to project how many months it will take for the entire available inventory to sell. Anything under 2 months of inventory represents a sellers’ market. You can see that for the last 15 months, inventory was almost always under 1 month, indicating a crazy seller’s market.
What does this mean for the consumer?
It is still a great time to sell and you have not missed the hot market, at least in our neighborhood. However, consumers are selective, so don’t think you can slap on a high price tag and do nothing to get your home ready for market.
If you are a buyer looking to purchase in Green Lake or Tangletown, strap on your seatbelts and get a great agent who knows how to navigate this market effectively so you can place a winning bid on the home of your dreams.
Kris Murphy & Daniela Dombrowski
Kris@key2seattleRE.com / Daniela@key2seattleRE.com
Keller Williams Greater Seattle
1307 N 45th St, Suite 300
Seattle, WA 98103