Green Lake Real Estate: 2017 compared to 2016
Kris Murphy and Daniela Dombrowski are Seattle Greenlaker sponsors and real estate brokers who live and specialize in the Wallingford and Green Lake neighborhoods. They practice out of the Keller Williams Greater Seattle office located on the corner of Stone Way and N 45th St.
Inventory remains at historically low levels. Although bidding wars are continuing, overall appreciation from January – June comparing 2016 to 2017 has slowed down a bit. The median sales price increased only 5.4% as compared to 10% last year at this time. Home sale prices are averaging 10% over list price, slightly more than last year’s average escalation above list price which was 8.6% . We have seen escalations between 30 – 35% for certain homes, but that is the exception not the norm.
The statistics provided in this post are hyper-local, capturing only Green Lake and Tangletown as outlined in the map below. The numbers are for single family homes including townhomes, a separate chart for condominiums is included below as well.
Statistics in the table below are based on home sales in the area outlined on the map above and are derived from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.
Single Family Homes
| Jan – June 2016 to 2017 Home Sales Comparison | 2016 | 2017 | Difference | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Closed Sales | 95 | 91 | -4 | -4.2% |
| Average Days on Market | 12 | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| Median List Price | $699,000 | $725,000 | $26,000 | +3.7% |
| Median Sales Price | $759,000 | $800,000 | $41,000 | +5.4% |
| List to Sales Price Ratio | 108.6% | 110.0% | +1.4% |
We captured all closed sales for January through June, both for 2016 and 2017.
The number of closed single family home sales has remained about the same year over year, decreasing by only 4 homes. Inventory was already historically low last year, so the trend continues, but has not gotten much worse in our neighborhood.
While average days on market has remained about the same year over year, it has gone up a bit from 12 days to 15 days. The majority of homes sell in less than 7 days with multiple offers, however, there are homes which sit longer because they are priced too high to begin with or are not well presented. New construction homes also typically have longer market times because they often begin marketing before they are complete.
The median sales price has increased by 5.4% this year, so appreciation while still going up has slowed a bit. Last year it was closer to 10%.
Condominiums
| Jan – June 2016 to 2017 Home Sales Comparison | 2016 | 2017 | Difference | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Closed Sales | 12 | 45 | +33 | +275% |
| Average Days on Market | 27 | 28 | +1 | +3.7% |
| Median List Price | $339,000 | $425,000 | $86,000 | +25% |
| Median Sales Price | $390,000 | $430,000 | $40,000 | +10% |
| List to Sales Price Ratio | 115.0% | 101.2% | -13.8% |
The number of closed condominium sales has DRASTICALLY increased in the last year. Last year only 12 condominiums sold in a 6-month period, this year there were 45; a whopping 275% increase. It seems folks are beginning to realize it may be a good time to take advantage of the market. Also, condominiums suffered more in our economic downturn, and have taken longer to recover.
As a real estate broker, it feels like there is an endless line of buyers to bid on most homes hitting the market. This can be very stressful for both buyers and brokers. Buyers may go through 8 tries before getting into a home. The city of Seattle is growing at a faster rate than its suburbs. See link below for more information about this.
Seattle added more people last year than all of King County’s suburbs combined
What the Trends are Telling Us
The following charts capture Green Lake (area as defined by NWMLS data) real estate trends for the last 15 months. This bar graph tells us how many homes were available for sale (light green), how many went under contract (red line), how many sales closed each month (dark green), and how many new listings there were (blue). The blue and red lines are almost evenly matched meaning there is enough demand in our neighborhood to swallow up all new inventory hitting the market.
Generally, in our neighborhood of diverse housing we don’t put that much stock into price per square foot. The reason for this is that condition and finishes vary widely, and often agents list unfinished space as finished so the price per square foot is often not a very reliable measure. However, this chart shows a large and consistent trend of increased square footage price in our neighborhood. We appear to be approaching $450 as the average price per square foot in Green Lake proper.
Finally, this chart illustrates months of inventory. It is derived based on a calculation dividing the number of active homes for sale by the number of homes that have closed in a given month and attempts to project how many months it will take for the entire available inventory to sell. Anything under 2 months of inventory represents a sellers’ market. You can see that for the last 15 months, inventory was almost always under 1 month, and many months were under 0.5 months of inventory so sellers still have the upper hand and buyer demand outpaces supply.
Market Changing? Or Typical Summer Slowdown?
Often this time of year we experience a seasonal slowdown. Of course, we stop and wonder, is the market finally changing? Or will it ramp back up with a vengeance in the fall and even more next January as has been the case for the last few years. We see no reason for the market to shift drastically anytime soon. Tech workers continue to flood into Seattle, we have more building cranes downtown than any other city in the nation and geographically, surrounded by waterways we only have so much land to go around. However, buyers may want to take advantage of our typical summer slowdown…
Typical summer slowdown may mean opportunities for frustrated house hunters http://www.northwestmls.com/index.cfm?/News–Information
And meanwhile it is a great time to sell!
Kris Murphy & Daniela Dombrowski
kris@key2seattleRE.com / Daniela@key2seattleRE.com
www.Key2SeattleRealEstate.com
http://www.zillow.com/profile/krismurphy/
Keller Williams Greater Seattle
1307 N 45th St, Suite 300
Seattle, WA 98103
