Green Lake & Tangletown Real Estate Analysis – What is happening Right Now!
Kris Murphy and Daniela Dombrowski are Seattle Greenlaker sponsors and real estate brokers who live and specialize in the Wallingford and Green Lake neighborhoods. They practice out of the Keller Williams Greater Seattle office located on the corner of Stone Way and N 45th St.
I am sure you have all heard by now, the Seattle real estate market is incredibly competitive. Here is a more localized look at our own neighborhood. As expected Green Lake is becoming more and more popular and as a result, inventory of homes for sale is extremely low and our bidding wars continue! Although the greater Green Lake area shown below is not as competitive as closer in Wallingford and Tangletown, which we also study periodically.
The statistics provided in this post are hyper-local, capturing only Green Lake and Tangletown as outlined in the map below. The numbers are for single family homes including townhomes. We have not included condominiums in this post because the numbers are too low to make up a representative sample.
Statistics in the table below are based on home sales in the area outlined on the map above and are derived from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
|Jan – May 29 2017 to 2018 Home Sales Comparison||2017||2018||Difference||%|
|Number of Closed Sales||75||75||0||0|
|Average Days on Market||7||7||0||0|
|Median List Price||$744,950||$829,950||$112,525||+11.41%|
|Median Sales Price||$800,000||$880,000||$80,000||+10.0%|
|List to Sales Price Ratio||107.3%||106%||-1.3%|
We captured all closed home sales for January through May 29, both for 2017 and 2018 from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
In residential homes and townhomes, the number of closed sales were exactly the same year over year at 75. Because the inventory remained about the same, we do not see such dramatic escalations in Green Lake. The median sales price increased 10% compared to this timeframe last year. Home sale prices are averaging 6% over list price, slightly less than last year’s average escalation above list price which was 7.3% . The median list price $829,950 this year, far surpasses the median sales price of last year. This is unusual. Generally it takes longer for the actual list prices to catch up to final sales prices. This is indicative of a very fast moving market.
Median days on market has remained the same year over year. The majority of homes sell in 7 days or less with multiple offers, because broker’s hold the listings on market for 1 week for an offer review, and only rarely considering offers before the offer review date.
What the Trends are Telling Us
The following charts capture Wallingford and Green Lake (area as defined by NWMLS data) real estate trends for the last 15 months (a wider sample than our above analysis). This bar graph tells us how many homes were available for sale (light green), how many went under contract (red line), and how many sales closed each month (dark green). We can see that we started the year with low inventory and did not see a sizable surge through April, meanwhile demand is even higher this year than last, exacerbating the inventory crisis. For such a large geographic area, this chart shows very little activity.
Average Price Per Square Foot
Generally, in our neighborhood of diverse housing, we don’t put that much stock into price per square foot. The reason for this is that condition and finishes vary widely, and often agents list unfinished space as finished so the price per square foot is often not a very reliable measure. However, this chart shows a large and consistent trend of increased square footage price in our neighborhood. Beginning late last year we surpassed $500 per square foot on average, and have reached that level twice since this year.
Average Months of Inventory
Finally, this chart illustrates months of inventory. It is derived based on a calculation dividing the number of active homes for sale by the number of homes that have closed in a given month and attempts to project how many months it will take for the entire available inventory to sell. Anything under 2 months of inventory represents a sellers’ market. You can see that for the last 15 months, inventory was almost always under 1 month, and many months were under 0.5 months of inventory so sellers still have the upper hand and buyer demand outpaces supply.
Millennials being pushed out of the city, Baby Boomers Cashing out
A recent Seattle Times article reports “rents have soared about 60 percent in seven years, while home prices have grown faster here than anywhere else in the country for the last year and a half…”
In my world, I see many brokers expanding their geographic areas to accommodate their buyer’s price ranges. Tacoma, Kent, Edmonds and Everett are all becoming viable possibilities for first time home buyers.
Another trend we are seeing is baby boomers cashing out and heading to less expensive, sometimes more peaceful areas such as east of the mountains, Bellingham and other smaller cities in and out of Washington state.
Inventory on the rise in May
As is often the case, inventory has been on the rise for the past few weeks. May is often a target listing month for sellers when the flowers are blooming and as the school year approaches an end. As a result of this increased housing stock we have seen some homes sitting past their offer review dates giving buyers choices and hope. Time will tell if this is a lasting trend, or just a yearly cycle to be repeated again and again.
Kris Murphy & Daniela Dombrowski
kris@key2seattleRE.com / Daniela@key2seattleRE.com
Keller Williams Greater Seattle
1307 N 45th St, Suite 300
Seattle, WA 98103